2021 Intergenerational Report – 40 Year Outlook

Colin Brinsden, AAP Economics and Business Correspondent
(Australian Associated Press)

Underlying cash balance to be in deficit over the next 40 years and to be 2.3 per cent of GDP by 2060/61. It was forecast to be 5.0 per cent of GDP ($106.6 billion) in 2020/21 as per May budget.

Real GDP to grow by an average annual rate of 2.6 per cent from 2020/21 to 2060/61, 0.4 percentage points lower than the past 40 years.

Real GDP to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent per person compared with 1.6 per cent over past 40 years.

38.8 million by 2060/61 compared to previous prediction of almost 40 million by 2054/55. This is the first time there has been a downward revision for population growth in the IGR.

By 2060/61, for each person aged over 65, there will be only 2.7 people working, compared with four people now and 6.6 people in 1981/82.

Projected to peak at 40.9 per cent of GDP in 2024/25, before falling to 28.2 per cent in 2044/45 and then increasing to 34.4 per cent by 2060/61. It was forecast to be 34.2 per cent for 2021/22 ($729 billion) in the May budget.

Labour productivity to converge to 1.5 per cent annually, consistent with the 30-year historical average to 2018/19. Productivity averaged 1.2 per cent over the most recent cycle.


Health – 26 per cent of total spending by 2060/61

Aged care – to double by 2060/61

Age pension/Super tax concessions – to grow to 5.0 per cent of GDP in 2060/61 from around 4.5 per cent in 2020/21.


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